India's economy is on the fulcrum of an ever increasing growth curve. With positive indicators such as a stable 8-9 per cent annual growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, a booming capital market and a rapidly expanding FDI inflows, India has emerged as the second fastest growing major economy in the world.
The economy has been growing at an average growth rate of 8.8 per cent in the last four fiscal years (2003-04 to 2006-07), with the 2006-07 growth rate of 9.6 per cent being the highest in the last 18 years. Significantly, the industrial and service sectors have been contributing a major part of this growth, suggesting the structural transformation underway in the Indian economy.
For example, industrial and services sectors have logged in a 10.63 and 11.18 per cent growth rate in 2006-07 respectively, against 8.02 per and 11.01 cent in 2005-06. Similarly, manufacturing grew by 8.98 per cent and 12 per cent in 2005-06 and 2006-07 and transport, storage and communication recorded a growth of 14.65 and per cent 16.64 per cent, respectively.
Another significant feature of the growth process has been the consistently increasing savings and investment rate. While the gross saving rate as a proportion of GDP has increased from 23.5 per cent in 2001-02 to 34.8 per cent in 2006-07, the investment rate-reflected as the gross capital formation as a proportion of GDP-has increased from 22.8 per cent in 2001-02 to 35.9 per cent in 2006-07.The Current Fiscal Year
The process continues in the current fiscal year. On the back of 9.9 per cent growth in the first half of 2006-07, GDP grew by 9.1 per cent during April-September 2007.
- While overall industrial production grew by 9 per cent during April-December 2007, importantly capital goods production rose by 20.2 per cent compared to 18.6 per cent during same period in 2006.
- Services grew by 10.5 per cent in April-September 2007, on the back of 11.6 per cent during the corresponding period in 2006-07.
- Manufacturing grew by 9.6 per cent during April-December 2007, on the back of 12.2 per cent growth during same period in 2006-07.
- Core infrastructure sector continued its growth rate recording 6 per cent growth in April-November 2007.
- While exports grew by 21.76 per cent during April-December 2007, imports increased by 25.97 per cent in the same period.
- Money Supply (M3) has grown by a robust 22.8 per cent growth (year-on-year) as of December 21, 2007 compared to 19.3 per cent last year.
- The annual inflation rate in terms of WPI was 3.5 per cent for the week ended December 29, 2007 as compared to 5.89 per cent a year ago.
- Fiscal and revenue deficit decreased by 11 per cent and 17.2 per cent, respectively, during April-November 2007-08 over corresponding period last year.
With such a robust growth rates, the advance estimates of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) expects the economy to grow by 8.7 per cent in 2007-08.